Thursday, July 6, 2017
The Art by Lena Vargas Afanasieva Lena Vargas Afanasieva also... crss
The Art by Lena Vargas Afanasieva
Lena Vargas Afanasieva also known as Lena la Ballena, is a freelance designer from Santo Domingo, focused mainly on illustrations.
Born from a Russian mother and a Dominican father, I grew up with a mix of both cultures. The magical Russian fairytale stories and the bright colourful Dominican culture influence my art to this day. I’m having a lot of fun playing with vectors, typography and bright colour palettes, and with every illustration I like to show a little bit more of my imaginative worlds.
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posted by Margaret
crssThe Art by Lena Vargas Afanasieva Lena Vargas Afanasieva also...
The Art by Lena Vargas Afanasieva
Lena Vargas Afanasieva also known as Lena la Ballena, is a freelance designer from Santo Domingo, focused mainly on illustrations.
Born from a Russian mother and a Dominican father, I grew up with a mix of both cultures. The magical Russian fairytale stories and the bright colourful Dominican culture influence my art to this day. I’m having a lot of fun playing with vectors, typography and bright colour palettes, and with every illustration I like to show a little bit more of my imaginative worlds.
Spice up your timeline by following us on Facebook!
posted by Margaret
Warren Buffett Says Most People End up Being Average Because They Don't Keep This List
Sitting down and setting your life goals can be exciting and motivating. It gives us purpose, sets clear intention, makes us feel productive and creates the feeling of moving forward.
But have you ever started out making a mental or physical list of your goals only to end up with quite a few? Then when you start acting on them, they either end up cast aside or only half achieved? Having goals has been drummed into us from an early age but are having all these goals actually hindering us?
Warren Buffett, one of the most successful businessmen in the world today, questions the need for having so many goals. Instead he puts his success down to eliminating, sometimes important goals, in order to focus on the few that will bring the success we desire.
Warren Buffett asked his pilot to list 25 priorities in his life
To illustrate Buffett’s idea, there’s a great story involving his personal airplane pilot of 10 years, Mike Flint, and how Buffett helped him to focus and prioritize his goals using a 2-list strategy.
Buffett asked Flint to carefully think about, and write down his 25 top career goals. Once Flint spent time doing this he came back and presented them to Buffett. He then asked Flint to pick out the top 5 most important goals.
So at this point Flint now had two separate lists – the list of 5 goals and the list of 20 remaining goals.
Like many of us, Flint concluded that he would focus primarily on his top 5 and work towards the other 20 as and when he could find the time.
However, Buffett stopped him and said that this is actually the path of becoming unsuccessful because really he should now throw away his list of 20 altogether – no matter how important many of them may be – and focus solely on the top 5.
Why? Because that list of 20 is essentially a distraction.
Average people don’t know they should AVOID seemingly important things in their lives
The reason we often never succeed with our goals is because we don’t prioritize, focus and therefore, complete, the important few.
It’s human to get demotivated and distracted – two feelings that can be the death of our goals. The bigger the list of goals we have, the more chance there is to give up and move on to the next one in the hope that this one will succeed.
If what Malcolm Gladwell claims is true, to become an expert in any field we must spend 10,000 hours of deliberate practice towards gaining knowledge in that area. That equates to 20 hours each week for almost a year, for a total of 10 years.
So imagine Flints original list of 25 goals – that would mean it would take him 250 years to fully master his complete list. You can see how having too many goals can lead you down the path to a less successful and fulfilling life.
Make sure you keep the “Avoid-at-all-cost list”
Minimizing has become a hot topic when it comes to living the best life we can and this also applies to our life goals. Like our physical stuff, it can be hard to make a decision to throw certain goals out of the window when they feel important to us. But the process itself allows us to work out our priorities and what’s truly important.
Try writing out 25 goals – whether it’s long term goals or even short term weekly or monthly goals – and start the process of prioritising in order to discover your top 5.
Now, instead of literally throwing the list of 20 away completely, label this your avoid-at-all-costs list to serve as a reminder of what not to focus on. This is the list that will decrease your time and focus and ultimately your success. In other words, if you start working on this list you are in danger of having 20 half-finished goals instead of 5 completed ones.
Whatever your top 5 goals are, whether you want to learn a new language or skill, or work towards a particular career goal, make a conscious effort to stick to these. Keep motivated to achieve these goals and don’t wander onto your second list. Remember, your time investment is key to success and this time will be compromised the more goals you take on.
Get the success you want: prioritize efficiently, focus intently and stick to it.
Featured photo credit: Fortune Live Media via flickr.com
The post Warren Buffett Says Most People End up Being Average Because They Don’t Keep This List appeared first on Lifehack.
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Why "Statistics Show" And "Science Says" Can't Always Be Trusted
“Lies, damned lies, and statistics!” Have you heard this phrase before? It demonstrates how people can use statistics to strengthen arguments, specifically weak arguments.
This simple comic demonstrates a logical fallacy we often fall for. We have all deferred to an expert or a position of authority before, yet how do we know they were accurate? This is called Authority Bias. Let’s take a look at how this works:[1]
- Person X is an authority in a particular field.
- Person X says something about a topic in their respective field.
- Person X is probably correct because they’re an expert.
Another form of bias we typically fall victim to is Confirmation Bias. This occurs from the direct influence of desire on our beliefs. If we wish a certain idea or concept to be true, we end up believing it to be true. This leads to completely ignoring or rejecting information because we have already formed and embraced a specific belief. [2]
We can never be 100% confident.
A skeptical mind is a good thing. We can be 100% confident that we can never be 100% confident!
Let me show you what I mean through the use of hypothesis testing. What comes to mind when you hear a “not guilty” decision? Do you think there is any chance the person could have actually been guilty? A “not guilty” verdict could mean different things. For example, it could mean the jury was absolutely sure the person didn’t commit the crime (still we can never be 100%) or they were pretty sure the person didn’t commit the crime and had a reasonable doubt.
If a jury were to convict an innocent person, this would be a Type I Error. Alternatively, by not convicting a guilty person, this would be Type II Error. Hypothesis testing reminds me of a quote from Benjamin Franklin,
“It is better to let 100 guilty men go free than to convict one innocent man.”
So, what can we do to overcome bias? Let’s look at a couple techniques… but first, let me ask you a simple question.
Knowing that we can never be 100% confident, could Einstein have been wrong? The answer is a profound yes. In fact, scientists behind a theory that the speed of light is variable, and not constant as Einstein suggested, have made a prediction they plan to test. [3] So, if one of the smartest people in history could have been wrong, this should demonstrate that anyone can be wrong.
Always try to prove yourself wrong.
What would happen if we always tried to prove ourselves wrong? Typically, we accept the hypothesis. If we try to look for evidence, the natural course for us is to seek out evidence confirming the hypothesis. Yet, by doing this, we ignore the fact that the evidence could provide us a different explanation. [4]
“We are trying to prove ourselves wrong as quickly as possible, because only in that way can we find progress.” – Richard Feynman
Use the rule of 3.
Another powerful technique is the Rule of 3. Here you identify three potential causes for each issue. A study published in the Journal of Accounting Research revealed that auditors who develop three hypotheses are actually more efficient at identifying misstatements through the use of analytical procedures. [5]
Let’s take a look at how Andy Snyder recommends using the Rule of 3 tactic. [6]
- Train yourself to understand that what you first believe is not necessarily right or wrong. It is likely somewhere in the middle.
- Create 3 distinct hypotheses as you work to discover the truth. By tracking 3 distinct ideas, it forces us to go beyond right or wrong. It forces us to explore the gray areas.
- Strive to update your beliefs and reward yourself when you do. Snyder says this is the hallmark of a finely tuned mind.
I also have another unique way to attack this issue. Let’s take a look.
Blinded by Numbers + Bias = Hypothesis
Your hypothesis becomes the outcome.
Here’s my Hypothesis for bias (using deductive reasoning)
- Premise #1: People are easily convinced by statistics.
- Premise #2: Statistics are difficult to understand, so people fail to question them.
- Premise #3: People fail to question the experts.
Conclusion: Therefore, people blindly defer to the experts.
So, what can you do? Follow my winning formula Solution – Hypothesis = New Outcome.
My Solution for overcoming bias:
- Step #1: Become aware of your bias.
- Step #2: Remember your purpose or objective. Numbers are only indicators, so let them only serve as such and not your conclusion.
- Step #3: Use a technique to develop your hypothesis (i.e. Prove Yourself Wrong or the Rule of 3)
- Step #4: Use Argument Maps.
Lastly, let’s end by looking at a famous parable – The Blind Men and an Elephant. This is the story of a group of blind men and their first encounter with an elephant. They learn how to conceptualize the elephant by touching it. They each feel different parts of the elephant’s body (each man only feels one part). They then describe the elephant to each other based on their partial experience. They argue as each description is in complete disagreement with one another. [7]
The moral of the story is the following: We all have a tendency to project our own experiences; however, we project them as the entire truth. We should strive to consider that we might be partially correct, yet we only have a small chunk of the whole. We must become aware of the bigger picture, not just our chunk of information.
Featured photo credit: Stocksnap via stocksnap.io
Reference
| [1] | ^ | Mediotype.com: Logical fallacies in online business part 8 |
| [2] | ^ | Psychology Today: What is confirmation bias? |
| [3] | ^ | Phys.org: Theory that challenges Einstein’s physics could soon be put to the test |
| [4] | ^ | Journalofaccountancy.com: 5 ways to overcome confirmation bias |
| [5] | ^ | Journalofaccountancy.com: 5 ways to overcome confirmation bias |
| [6] | ^ | Manwardpress.com: Three tricks to change your mind |
| [7] | ^ | Wikipedia: Blind men and an elephant |
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“Black Powder” Photography by Damion BergerGunpowder,... crss
“Black Powder” Photography by Damion Berger
Gunpowder, also known as black powder, is the earliest known chemical explosive. Following its invention in ancient China, the earliest documentation of fireworks can be traced back to the 9th century when they were first used by the Chinese to frighten away evil spirits and pray for happiness and prosperity.
Damion Berger (b. London 1978) is a photographer who’s artwork makes the viewer question the possibilities of photography and its relationship to time and movement. Operating between abstraction and conceptualism, his unorthadox approach to traditional photographic process typically employs long exposure and in-camera techniques to make photographic ‘recordings’ that probe the nature and convention of photography. At the heart of his practice are experiments in mark-making, quite literally painting with light – exploring the relationship between time, movement and light, his work flips the concept of the photographic moment on its head, rendering the invisible…visible. Often printed in the negative, his photographs resemble layered line drawings and reference the historical evolution of photography whilst engaging in dialogue across broader artistic mediums.
He currently lives and works between New York and France.
Thanks Ricardo Pinto and Wired
Black Powder
Reflecting on the nature and form of fireworks and their role in contemporary culture, these photographs ostensively record worldly celebrations memorialized with pyrotechnics, from the inauguration of Earth’s tallest building in downtown Dubai to art performances in the Jardin de Tuileries.
Grand in both size and scale, these images are made using in-camera techniques such as long and overlapping exposures and unorthodox combinations of focus and aperture to select, sculpt and multiply the explosions onto a single sheet of film. They are printed back as negatives by making facsimile enlargements of the exposed film.
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